Ranking the Trading Symbols of the Largest Companies Listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Probability of Informed Trade Criteria
Mohammad
Mirbagherijam
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood University of Technology, Semnan, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
In this paper, trading symbols of the 30 largest companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were ranked based on the asymmetry information risk. Using the Ersan and Alici (2016) modified clustering algorithm (EA), we estimated the probability of informed trading (PIN) to measure the asymmetry information among traders for each trading symbol and trading day through a two-year horizon from 20th March 2015 to 19th March 2017. Furthermore, we used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method to determine the source of variation in the estimated PIN. The results showed that the estimated PIN is less than 0.1 for 88.2% of the firms-trading days, and that is equal to zero for 60% of the firms-trading days. Symbol trade “MAPN” is traded with the status of full asymmetric information in about 75% of its trading days. Factor weekdays have no significant effect on changing the PIN index. The annual average of the estimated PIN index for the first year is significantly less than the second year. The effects of firm specification on the PIN value will be disappeared after one year.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
567
589
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77638_09c687e8f0a8a125bc747035004e3ae2.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77638
Modeling Electricity Expenditures using BSOM based on Techno-Socio Economic: A Case Study of Urban Households of Iran’s Provinces
Neda
Bayat
Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
author
Ali Asghar
Salem
Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Electricity has particular importance in the national economy and provides socio-economic welfare. It is considered an essential infrastructure of the countries' development. This is why managing electricity consumption and formulating proper policies for it is very important for policy-makers. To do this successfully, it is necessary to identify energy consumption patterns and relevant influential factors. This study aims to identify the qualitative and quantitative effective factors of energy consumption using batch self-organizing maps (BSOM). Electricity consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-third of total electricity consumption. Therefore, this study evaluated the consumption of urban households in Iran’s provinces. According to the results, electricity price, household income, and NG gas piping costs, as quantitative factors, and the number of adolescents, number of rooms, employment status of the household responsible person (HRP), number of children, education level of HRP, house area, house material and use of the stationary gas cooler, as qualitative factors, are the most important factors affecting electricity consumption. Electricity price, the number of teenagers, rooms, and status of household head activity are identified as the most important quantitative and qualitative factors in all provinces of the country.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
591
620
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77639_53f7d35e63efdfe9646460b5f8654ad6.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77639
The Impact of Oil Export Earnings on Government Income and Expenditure: A Policy Implication on Sustainable Development of the Nigerian Economy
Bukonla
Grace Osisanwo
Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago- Iwoye, Nigeria.
author
text
article
2020
eng
This study examines the effect of oil fluctuation export earnings on government income and expenditure in Nigeria using time series data from 1986 to 2015. The study utilized co-integration techniques and ordinary least squares as the methods of analysis. The co-integration tests indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between oil export earnings, government income, and expenditure. The results also show that oil export earnings have a positive impact on total government income and expenditure. However, the impact of oil export earnings on government revenue was significant. Other variables influencing government income and expenditure are the total income and population size. The policy implication derivable from this study is that increase in government expenditure without a corresponding increase in revenue could widen the budget deficit. Therefore, the government should explore other sources of revenue, especially the non-oil minerals sector, reduce the size of large recurrent expenditures and move towards capital and other investment expenditures.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
621
638
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77641_1d0d5b3763df6adaaacf249d7fb471b9.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77641
Stock (Mis) Pricing and Diversification in Africa: Evidence from Selected African Exchanges
Saidi Atanda
Mustapha
Department of Economics, Accounting and Finance, College of Management Sciences, Bells University of Technology, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria.
author
text
article
2020
eng
This paper ascertains the extent of mispricing in equity portfolios, mispricing-divestment relation, and the role of African equities as risk diversification strategies during commodity market turbulence. Following Baur and Lucey (2010), one identifies an arbitrary commodity market crisis to be 1%, 5%, and 10% declining moments in returns. However, their approach is extended by using African equities as a safe-haven against gold. A risk-augmented CAPM is specified to estimate the mispricing in equity portfolios, while the risk diversification model follows Baur and Lucey (2010). For all the estimations, the regressions are run on daily data from 5th January 2010 to 30th December 2015. First, the results show the presence of transient mispricing in the portfolio's returns of African equities regardless of the firms’ liquidity and volatility levels. More so, stronger mispricing is observed using an alternative specification. Second, mispricing causes significant divestment in big-size portfolios. Third, there is a clear manifestation of strong, safe-havens between South Africa and Cocoa markets; Egypt and Platinum markets; and Morocco and Oil markets, respectively. However, Nigerian equities can be a successful diversifier for oil and cocoa during market turmoil. The conclusion is that mispricing in a portfolio of equity returns is due to low trading frequency. Africa’s equity markets are risk diversifiers and safe-havens for commodities. The paper recommends the jettisoning of Investors’ buy-and-hold trading strategy and encouraging the establishment of African commodity exchange to achieve the desired inclusive growth.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
639
674
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77642_9550f49121ea173e001465cf64344135.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77642
The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Pakistan; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Co-integration
Khalid
Zafar
SDM Education Department, Dera Ismail Khan District, Pakistan.
author
text
article
2020
eng
This paper's main objective was to investigate the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Pakistan. We have employed the Johansen and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration together with ECM Techniques for the period 1975-2016. The empirical estimated results are the sound evidence that there exists a short-run and long-run positive and stable cointegration among the variables. Our empirical findings show that trade openness and foreign direct investment significantly impact Pakistan's economic growth. Moreover, the Granger causality test also confirms the bidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. It is, therefore, concluded that trade openness can play a vital role as the economic growth of Pakistan is concerned.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
675
705
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77643_0525c7d978943b17042aa2c4d93ba312.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77643
Revisiting the Nexus of FDI and Employment in International Trade: Evidence from the Emerging Construction Service Sector
Herlitah
Herlitah
Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia.
author
Muhammad
Fawaiq
Ministry of Trade Republic of Indonesia, Indonesia.
author
Herlindah
Herlindah
Faculty of Laws, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia.
author
text
article
2020
eng
This study examines the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Indonesian construction service sector employment. The method used in this study is Panel VECM Granger. The data used are the FDI inflow and employment in the construction sector in some provinces, namely North Sumatra, Riau, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and Bali, from 2000 to 2014. The share of the six provinces is 80% of the total national FDI in the construction sector. The results showed unidirectional causality in the short-term and long-term between FDI and labor. That relationship is the inflow of FDI strongly influenced by employment. In other words, Indonesian human resources can encourage investors to invest in Indonesia and not vice versa.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
707
721
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77644_2f25751ad0a2a7831a47e5ce8f0ff904.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77644
The Optimum Portfolio Based on Konno Linear Programming Model (A Case Study on the Iran Insurance Company)
Ezatollah
Abbasian
Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
author
Seyed Ehsan
Hosseinidoust
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science & Economics, Bu-Ali Sian University, Hamadan, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Iran Insurance Company intends to raise its financial credit and render enhanced services to the insured and the public. The need to meet financial obligations arising from the claims requires the determination of the optimum deposited claims reserve with banks. Therefore, the present research study aimed at finding the loss ratio (incurred losses to premium) and determining the optimum portfolio of risky and risk-free assets of insurance companies during 1996-2017 by conducting a case study on Iran Insurance Company. Based on the relevant data, the highest loss ratio of 81 percent belonged to 1998-99, and the lowest percentage of 62 percent belonged to 2003-2004. Konno Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model was utilized to determine the optimum portfolio of Iran Insurance Company. According to the Konno Model, the optimum portfolios of risk-free and risky assets are as follows: Short-term banking deposits with 9 percent, long-term banking deposits with 46 percent, bank certificates of deposits (CDs) and participation papers with 9 percent, stocks of companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) with 17 percent, stocks of companies not listed on the TSE with 11 percent, and other assets, i.e., risky assets, including housing loan for employees of insurance companies, offering facilities to the agencies of insurance companies, purchasing immovable assets, and other financial instruments and constructions with 8 percent.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
723
741
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77645_d48c2609e759fbc719bf1b48e5f54153.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77645
The Effect of Financial Openness Measure on the Government Size in Selected Countries
Amir Mansour
Tehranchian
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Mohammad
Abdi Seyyedkolaee
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Nava
Imani
Department of Economics, Allameh Mohaddes Nouri University, Nour, Iran.
author
Seyedeh Zahra
Zakeritabar
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
A decline in private sector investment expenditures, crowding-out effect, lack of conditions for optimal allocation of resources, reduction inefficiency, and the possibility of increasing inequality in income distribution are considered as the effects of increasing the government size according to many theoretical studies and empirical evidence. Hence, it is essential to identify the government's size and position determinants. In this study, in addition to inflation and economic growth rate, the effect of financial openness measures on the government size in selected countries such as Iran has been tested experimentally. In the present paper, Chinn and Ito's indicators are used as variables of financial openness measure. Also, to analyze the sensitivity of the results to the statistical sample, the econometric model for the two groups of countries with high and low GDP per capita (2000-2016) was estimated by the Generalized Moment Method (GMM). The results showed an increase in the degree of financial openness in both groups of studied countries would reduce the size of the government. Still, this effect is more in countries with high GDP per capita and minimal in countries with low GDP per capita. In high GDP per capita countries, the relationship between inflation and government size is positive and significant, and the relationship between GDP per capita and government size is negative and significant. But the study of low GDP per capita countries shows a negative and significant relationship between inflation and government size and a positive and meaningful relationship between GDP per capita and government size. Besides, according to research findings, the economic growth rate has the most considerable impact on government size in both countries.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
743
762
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77646_bab012a05d07e4b4af5a7fd8c4a92f81.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77646
Identifying and Prioritizing Innovative Opportunities for Tourism Investment in Mashhad City
Fatemeh
Rahmani
Iranian Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR) of Khorasan Razavi, Department of Tourism Economics, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.
author
Samane
Zangoei
Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.
author
Ali
Rahnama
Iranian Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR) of Khorasan Razavi, Department of Tourism Economics, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Because of the numerous tourists to Mashhad, this city has a high potential for developing tourism-related activities. Therefore, it is necessary to equip resources for tourism activities and investment. Despite the highest tourism potential in Mashhad, there are great opportunities for the tourism industry, which have not been fully identified and made available to investors. Besides, some aspects of investment in the tourism industry of Mashhad have been filled, and investment issues have been unvarying and repeated patterns that emphasize the need to focus on innovative investment opportunities. This study was conducted in 2017, and the statistical sample consists of 40 experts and activists in the private sector who work in the field of tourism The method used is Fuzzy TOPSIS. after identifying the innovative tourism investment opportunities in Mashhad to rank these opportunities by using comparative studies, and the views of private sector investors and experts in tourism organizations. This ranking is based on 15 general and innovation indicators that are related to investment and are implemented through fuzzy TOPSIS. According to the results of this study, the most significant opportunities for tourism investment in Mashhad are the creation of a website with the complete profile of all hotels and residential centers tourists, the presentation of healthy and organic foods for Special diets (Elderly, children, vegans, diabetics, etc.), and the creation a market for souvenirs and handicrafts.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
763
791
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77647_b038b22909e4b3bbac444096e9330aed.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77647
The Role of Location on Exploitation of Agricultural Businesses in Mazandaran Province (Case Study: Agricultural Processing Industry)
Roghayeh
Zahedian Tejeneki
Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University. Mazandaran, Iran.
author
Seyed Mojtaba
Mojaverian
Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Mazandaran, Iran.
author
Seyed Ali
Hosseini Yekani
Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Mazandaran, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Choosing the proper site is essential in constructing units such as agricultural processing industries. In this study, we try to determine the factors affecting the exploitation of the agricultural processing industries and measure the share of location as one of the critical issues in locating research. The 2572 data were collected from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Mazandaran province. The two-level Logit model was used as the estimation method. The results showed that the variables of cooperative ownership, planned capacity, unit area, industrial parks, and livestock and Horticultural activities harm the exploitation. The variables of capital and fishery activity positively affect exploitation. Also, the construction site explains, on average, 1.2% of the observed deviation, which is not defined by independent variables in the model. The share of the worst and the best location in terms of spatial characteristics are 0.2 and 4.6%. The low percentage of sites in exploitation can be due to the right choice of location by investors or the proximity of the cities of Mazandaran province. Therefore, it is necessary to improve other factors affecting the construction of the Agricultural processing industries in Mazandaran.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
793
806
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77648_bbdb91e6d29043960bc45b347a77558b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77648
Learning Curve and Industry Structure: Evidences from Iranian Manufacturing Industries
Mohammad Ali
Feizpour
Department of Economics, Business School, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
author
Abolfazl
Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi
Department of Economics, Business School, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
author
Marjan
Habibi
Department of Economics, Kansas State University, USA.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Empirical studies have shown that cost advantages can occur due to economies of scale and learning. However, a few studies have attempted to distinguish between these two effects on reducing costs. This paper is the first attempt to recognize the impact of learning on lowering costs by determining the effect of economies of scale in Iran. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the cost benefits of industries based on learning and economies of scale in terms of their structures, as industries with various forms have different performances. Using industries at four-digit ISIC levels from 1997 to 2005, the findings show that learning rates are not uniform across industries. Learning rates are more than the effect of scale economies in only 11 among 31 industries. Moreover, the impact of learning in reducing costs in monopolistic industries is more than in oligopolistic and competitive industries; similarly, learning is more in oligopolistic than competitive industries. From a policy point of view, competitive industries should try to focus on achieving both dynamic and static dimensions of cost advantages to enhance their competitiveness and keep market shares.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
807
832
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77649_6d601823c53acad3cd0a1553bab92e3f.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77649
The Economic Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Using Artificial Neural Network (Case Study: Moghan Plain)
Ali
Sardar Shahraki
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
author
Somayeh
Emami
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tabriz, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Precipitation shortage, the consequent loss of several water resources, and population growth are the most critical problems in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Providing essential tools for optimal water resources management is considered one of the leading solutions to this problem. Since the agricultural sector is the primary user of water resources, the present study presented a model based on an artificial neural network method for the optimal allocation of water resources in the agricultural sector during the statistical period of 2007-2016. The objective function was determined for each product in the agricultural sector, product performance, product revenues, and cultivated area of the demand function. Maximizing the objective function (to maximize economic profits) and optimal allocation of water resources were; then conducted using the neural network. The results of applying the artificial neural network method to the problem of optimal water allocation showed that, in this section, higher revenues could be obtained through economic policies and changing the pattern of cultivation. Furthermore, the results revealed that about 44 percent of the optimal allocation revenues of water resources ($115 billion) were improved between the agricultural sectors, compared to the current situation, by applying a coefficient of 0.9 compared to two coefficients of 0.75.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
833
851
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77650_a7d0bb810a1eea6d82341947155af95b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77650
The Fiscal Dominance through Banking System: A Case Study on the Relationship between Government and Banking System in Iran’s Economy
Ali
Taiebnia
Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
author
Mohsen
Mehrara
Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
author
Seyed Hamid
Pourmohammad Gelsefidi
Department of Economics, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Kish, Iran.
author
text
article
2020
eng
Iran's economy still has a two-digit inflation rate with high fluctuations, mainly caused by fiscal dominance. According to the relevant literature, borrowing from the central bank is the most critical fiscal dominance mechanism. After prohibiting direct borrowing from the Central Bank of Iran's government, the budget deficits are partially addressed by off-budgeting operations achieved by the banking system. In addition to introducing the Off-budgeting mechanism of fiscal dominance through the banking system, this study aimed to detect whether fiscal dominance in Iran resulted from the government's borrowing from the banks and, consequently, its indirect borrowing from the Central Bank. The bank ledgers data from March 2007 to June 2018 was used in this study, and it was revealed that an increase in the government's debts to the banks had a significant positive effect on the bank's debt to the Central Bank; the result is more highlighted in specialized and privatized banks, respectively. This finding is robust when the banks' balance sheet, banking health, and macroeconomic status have controlled.
Iranian Economic Review
University of Tehran
1026-6542
24
v.
3
no.
2020
853
883
https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_77651_1563551666a98d8f2942390ede0644c4.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22059/ier.2020.77651