@article { author = {}, title = {Offset Policy: An Advanced Countertrade Practice}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {5-20}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30909}, abstract = {This paper explains offset and develops a strategic approach for the implementation of offset-policy for a buyer country. Offset emerges when a country cannot afford to pay cash for non-essential imports, and cannot get cash for many of its products. Offset arrangements are most frequently found in the defense-related sector. However, recently, it refers to a range of industrial and commercial compensation practices as well. The Australian experience showed that such policy contributes significantly to industry development and economic growth. Review of twenty-three offset cases showed that they had several features in common, including; maximized prospects of both seller and buyers, greater flexibility, complexity, creativity, and timely arrangements. These features require adopting a strategic approach for implementation. The process covers policy development, appointment of an executive committee, analysis of the country’s needs and priorities, call for proposals and bids, appraisal of offers, negotiation, publicity, agreement, and operation of offset arrangements. The article concludes that if Iran continues to spend its cash for financing large defense and civil projects it will only satisfy the vendors’ needs, not its own needs. Offset is common for such deals and is a}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30909.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30909_8bdf71d9180a92df0363af6bee3d6140.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {Behavioral Pattern of Income Velocity of Money and Estimation of Its Function (The case of Iran)}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {21-55}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30910}, abstract = {Based on the “Aggregate Demand” theory, monetary policies are designed with the aim of achieving desirable level of macroeconomic goals through affecting the stock of money supplyand income velocity of money. Thus, the velocity (V)-as well as money supply - has significant impact, particularly on rate of inflation through expansionary or contractionary monetary policy. To focus on the velocity from a theoretical point of view, the classical theories of demand for money considered this variable as a stable, due to negligible changes in structures and real variables of the economy. On the other hand, the contemporary theories of New-classical and New-Keynesian schools believed in the effectiveness of anticipated and even unanticipated policies on the fluctuations, or stability of income velocity. However in regards to the fluctuations of this variable in the Iranian economy, it has been observed that from the 1340’s (1960’s) until the beginning of the First Five Year Development Plan, in 1368 (covering 1989/90-1993/94 period) it has diminished and then until recent years, it has an upward trend, showing a “U” shape pattern, same as that in the European and American economies. Thus, to find a specific behavioral pattern for this variable, we can estimate and predict its impacts on macroeconomic variables, i.e, on inflation rate, etc. In this paper, an attempt is made to survey the stability of this variable, and then the long run or the equilibrium function of income velocity shall be estimated, using the co-integration method. Finally, we analyse the short run adjustment of this variable to predict its long-run equilibrium value, by applying the impulse response function, variance decomposition and error correction model (ECM).}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30910.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30910_d6cc425b2b6f70dc99816ab5aa01ef36.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {Rational Choice Theory: A Cultural Reconsideration}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {57-66}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30911}, abstract = {Economists have heralded the formulation of the expected utility theorem as a universal method of choice under uncertainty. In their seminal paper, Stigler and Becker (Stigler & Becker, 1977) declared that “human behavior can be explained by a generalized calculus of utility-maximizing behavior” (p.76). The universality of the rational choice theory has been widely criticized by psychologists, political scientists, feminists, philosophers and other social thinkers. Tversky and Kahneman (1986) have shown that the framing of choice problems can influence the decisions. Herber Simon (1959) and James March (1958) have pioneered models of bounded rationality. Paula England (1993) refers to works of some feminist philosophers who believe that the concept of rationality is gender biased. This paper challenges the rational choice decision-making model from a cultural viewpoint. In brief, this article will show that the expected utility theorem, as a decision making model, is compatible with the cultural norms and values that are often found in capitalist societies from which they come, Consequently, the absence of certain cultural values in non-capitalistic societies will yield alternative decision models.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30911.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30911_b73e4f1f8654d18b1022513b3e2d2e13.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {Forecasting GDP Growth Using ANN Model with Genetic Algorithm}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {67-84}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30912}, abstract = {Applying nonlinear models to estimation and forecasting economic models are now becoming more common, thanks to advances in computing technology. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models, which are nonlinear local optimizer models, have proven successful in forecasting economic variables. Most ANN models applied in Economics use the gradient descent method as their learning algorithm. However, the performance of the ANN models can still be improved by using more flexible and general learning algorithm. In this paper, we develop an ANN model combined with Genetic Algorithm to forecast the Iranian GOP growth. In order to evaluate the performance of the model with other ANN and traditional econometric models, we compare the results of the model with other linear and nonlinear competing models such as ARMA, VAR, and ANN with gradient descent learning algorithm. We use the recently produced extended data on the Iranian GOP from 1937 to 2002. The results indicate that the GA can improve the forecasting performance of ANN model over other standard ANN and econometrics models.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30912.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30912_63bdc7d9df901ab92a1f30833705e178.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {Does Economic Growth Help Poor People? Evidence from Iran in the first five - year plan}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {85-99}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30913}, abstract = {This paper examines the relationship between growth and poverty in Iran during the first five-year plan. In other words, effort has been made to show whether economic growth in Iran helped poor people or not. For this purpose the concept of pro poor growth has been analyzed with application to the economy of Iran, both in urban and rural areas and in the country as a whole. We use an indicator of pro poor growth in order to determine the degree to which poor people benefited or lost from the economic growth in Iran. The results indicate that during the period of 1988-93, the extent of poverty declined in Iran. The decomposition of changes in poverty into ‘pure growth effect’ and ‘pure inequality effect’ showed that the former effect is negative and the latter is positive both i n urban a nd rural areas a rid in the country a s a whole. Pro poor growth index measured by poverty indices as headcount ratio, poverty gap ratio, and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index shows that economic growth both in urban and rural areas and in the country of Iran is pro poor. Thus, according to findings in this paper, economic growth helps the poor people.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30913.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30913_3e8e2061141649f0bd0a5d67f3e3d9c9.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {A Study of the Real Exchange Rate Behavior and its Effects on Macroeconomic Variables}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {101-122}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30914}, abstract = {In this article, real exchange rate behavior and its effects on macroeconomic variables are studied by explaining two models; impulse function and forecasting predicted error decomposition. Studies show that high artificial currency value has caused domestic and foreign accounts equilibrium disturbance and foreign income decrease due to the slackening of commercial and agricultural activities, foreign debt increase, productive capacity, purchasing power, and national welfare decrease, and general price level increase. Trade balance unexpected reaction is one of the most important points that should be considered while first fostering exchange policy. At the first stage of fostering devaluation policy, contrary to the perspective, trade balance may move into a critical situation. The results show that in Iran’s Economy, the effect of Rial real devaluation policy, after three lags (about a year), caused non- oil export growth and improvement. It should be considered that the positive range of this effect was restricted and lasted for no more than one year. This study approves the presence of J- curve phenomenon in Iran from the first quarter of 1977 till die last quarter of 1995. The results show the importance of import share in changing real exchange rate. Short term production changes are affected by output, import, money supply, real effective exchange rate and non-oil — export respectively. The results also exhibit that two variables — money supply and imports, significantly explain changes in non-oil — exports. Production equation is also affected by its own lags. This means that in the above-mentioned period, exchange and monetary policy could not play an important role in output changes. Ultimately, in the import equation import is affected weekly by the lags of real exchange rate. It might be explained that during the period of this study, import restrictions as the dominating variable, played the key role of import trend in Iran.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30914.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30914_0c01c4da096f6c95d7dfe1266a182b7b.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {Demand for Medical Care in Urban Areas of Iran : An Empirical Investigation}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {123-140}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30915}, abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the factors affecting demand for medical care in Iran the population for this study relates to the Medical Care Insurance Organization of Iran. For the sake of conducting the analysis a sample of 4260 individuals are chosen using a fuzzy sampling procedure. The data was then analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results show that price has had a negative sign and has been inelastic in all different choices for medical care (four different choices were assumed for each individual and their families). Income, health characteristics of the families and wealth proxies have expected signs though some with insignificant elasticities. The results are then used to assess the policy implications for the organization.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30915.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30915_234b18c914c19538c185f1551a20e080.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {The Growth Pattern of Iran's Economy in the First Five Year Development Plan (1989- 1994)}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {141-151}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30916}, abstract = {The effective factors on the economic growth of Iran during the first 5-year development plan are studied. The main characteristics of this period are that the first development plan began after the end of war during which some of the unused capacities of the war period were utilized. While the budget deficit was continued in this period the government also pursued policies such as devaluation of Rial, borrowing from aboard, liberalization and privatization to reconstruct the economy and promote the export. In this paper we consider growth factors as consumption and investment of domestic demand, promotion of export, Import substitution for consumer, investment and capital goods and also domestic demand for intermediate goods as a proxy for change in technology of production. It is shown that despite intensive devaluation of national money (Rial) in this period, due to weak production infrastructure and technology the Iran’s economy was unable to efficiently take advantage of foreign trade for its growth. The impact of foreign trade i.e. the total impact of export promotion and import substitution in his period is almost equal to zero; and the growth of Iran’s economy dependent on the domestic demand.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30916.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30916_173f769a2df529f7bfef54d3fee39829.pdf} } @article { author = {}, title = {The Effects of Exchange Rate Unification on the Iranian Economy}, journal = {Iranian Economic Review}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {153-167}, year = {2004}, publisher = {University of Tehran}, issn = {1026-6542}, eissn = {2588-6096}, doi = {10.22059/ier.2004.30917}, abstract = {The exchange rate unification is one of the most important instruments of economic adjustment, which is used in many countries. This paper shows the effects of the exchange rate unification on price level (inflation), gross domestic production (GDP), non-oil exports, private conception, government expenditure and stock of money. The data, is used related to the period 1959-2000. To analyze the above-mentioned effect we employed a model of nine simultaneous equations. The method used to estimate the model is 2sls. After the estimation, the model is simulated by Newton method in order to determine the effects of unification on the endogenous variables the model.}, keywords = {}, url = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30917.html}, eprint = {https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_30917_0a7510ba113876556851a6b7cb66cbce.pdf} }