University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 30 2 2026 06 01 The Roles of Climate Change and Food Security on Fertility Rate: Evidence from MENA Countries 761 792 97488 10.22059/ier.2024.371912.1007928 EN Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. 0000-0002-1372-9402 Narges Salehnia Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. 0000-0002-7505-5335 Samane Zangoei Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. 0009-0006-0224-9450 Journal Article 2024 02 11 Climate change and reduced food security can have devastating effects on society and especially human health. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change and food security on the fertility rate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by applying the novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) technique over the period from 2000 to 2020. Historical temperature and precipitation are included in the study model as climatic factors, and the food production index is considered a proxy for food security. In addition, the impact of the female labor force participation rate and the female population on the fertility rate have been investigated. The results from the estimations suggest that food security, mean precipitation, and female population increase the fertility rate. The impact of mean precipitation increases with higher quantiles. In addition, mean temperature and female labor force participation rate significantly decrease the fertility rate in all quantiles. In addition to protecting women's rights to education and employment, policymakers in the region must adopt appropriate policies and laws to provide the conditions for them to have children. Also, since climate change is a severe threat to the region's countries, governments should adopt appropriate policies in the agricultural sector, such as preventing the production and export of water-intensive crops, to prevent food insecurity. https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_97488_2979df3d399fc8f672d1d5010e930cb2.pdf