University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 Investigating the Structural Changes of Tax in Iran 445 460 59604 10.22059/ier.2016.59604 EN Alireza Shakibaei Department of Economy, University of Shahid Bahonar, Kerman, Iran. MohammadReza Ahmadinejad Department of Economy, University of Shahid Bahonar, Kerman, Iran Journal Article 2016 04 20 S tructural change is defined as a change in the relative weight of the important constituents of the macro-economic indicator such as production, taxes, imports and exports, workforce etc. Since the structure change is one of the main reasons for the growth and economic development of countries, the investigation of the trend of changes in economic important constituents is important. Tax as an important source of state revenue is one of the most significant macro-economic indicators; furthermore it is the most important instrument of the state’s fiscal policy. So due to the important position of tax in the countries’ economy, evaluating the trend of changes in the tax structure is of paramount importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the structural changes of taxes in Iran, by Bai and Perron method, for the period 1971-2012. The results based on the UDmax and WDmax tests show that there is at least one breakpoint in the movement process of all taxes in Iran; also based on the sequential procedure all breaks have not lead to the structural changes and Iran have not had the structure changes in income tax.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59604_2d6cc4979143d32e23719f799c9c0af7.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 Globalization and Financial Development in Nigeria 461 478 59606 10.22059/ier.2016.59606 EN Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. Ekundayo Peter Mesagan Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. Nsofor Chinedu Stanley Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. Journal Article 2016 06 22 Globalization is a worldwide phenomenon. The concept globalization is a very recent term only establishing its current meaning in the 1970s, which emerged from the intersection of four inter related sets of communities of practice, academics, journalists, publishers. This paper models the channels through which globalization affects financial sector development in Nigeria. To this end this study examines the data for these variables used in this study for the period (1987-2014). The results obtained in this study have established that globalization has a significant effect on financial sector development in Nigeria. Higher pace of globalization is found to be associated with a good financial system in Nigeria and it also serves as a stimulant for the economy. The study calls for an enabling environment for the financial system as well as interest rate targeting to encourage more financial in-flow.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59606_5079cef8920859c5c8d7ddbbe0e410a9.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 Investigating the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tools on Economic Growth Using Dynamic Simulation and Fuzzy Control Approach 479 500 59607 10.22059/ier.2016.59607 EN Sahar Motamedi Department of Economics, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran. Mansour Zarra-Nezhad Department of Economics, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran. Journal Article 2016 04 09 In this study, a macro-economic model consisting of twelve behavioral equations and fourteen identity equations was estimated with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies set out in the fourth and fifth development plans. In the estimated model, the variables of development expenditures, current expenditures and tax revenues are used as fiscal policy tools and variables of liquidity and long-term interest rates of bank were used as monetary policy tools. The results of solving the model using a dynamic simulation showed that by the implementation of this scenario, one can achieve a steady growth rate for model’s endogenous variables during the period and reduce its deviation from target values. Then, a fuzzy control system was designed with the aim of minimizing deviations and changes in the deviation of non-oil GDP from the values determined in the fourth and fifth development plans. Liquidity variables and government development expenditures were used as control tools in this system. Results obtained from the fuzzy system showed that using control rules, the growth rate of liquidity can be put at a lower level and growth rate of development expenditure around quantified targeted values in the fourth and fifth development plans. Also, the oscillation amplitude of the inflation and growth rates of non-oil production can also be reduced.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59607_5088750228cf969bed2c9222ee4c03db.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 Price Bubbles Spillover among Asset Markets: Evidence from Iran 501 523 59609 10.22059/ier.2016.59609 EN Saeed Rasekhi Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran. Zahra Mila Elmi Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran. Milad Shahrazi Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran. Journal Article 2016 04 30 T his paper investigates the existence of possible spillover effects among four main asset markets namely foreign exchange, stock, gold, and housing markets in Iran from 2002:03 to 2015:06. For this purpose, we have exploited Sigma-Point Kalman Filter (SPKF) to extract the bubble component of assets prices in the aforementioned Markets. Then, in order to analyze the price bubbles spillover amongst asset markets, we have taken several measures. First, we performed a pairwise Granger test. Afterwards, for the sake of studying the shock effects of the bubbles, a multivariate time series model in the form of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system has been implemented. Based on the results of Pairwise Granger Causality test, the assets bubbles have a causality relation amongst each other. Furthermore, the outcomes of impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis derived from the estimation of VAR model implies on the existence of bubbles spillover among asset markets.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59609_64d9e0e3c88577a96c079aa3cf10d788.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 The Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Exchange Return with PANEL-GARCH Approach (Case Study: D8 Countries) 525 550 59610 10.22059/ier.2016.59610 EN Behnam Najafzadeh Economic and Social Systems Department, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. Mohammadreza Monjazeb Department of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. Siab Mamipour Department of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2016 02 07 Stock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D8 countries. It takes monthly data during the period (2008:1-2015:6) constituting 90 observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Volatility Index, and then we used Panel data method to investigate the effect of index on the stock exchange return of D8 countries. Simulation results show that exchange rate volatility affects positively and significantly on stock exchange return in four countries, namely Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The variables of oil price, real interest rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate and gold price have been utilized for model analysis. Results show that the variables of real exchange rate and inflation rate have negative effects but oil price has positive effect on stock returns, while interest rate and gold price do not have any significant effect.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59610_2e5513a68d4b5e61e2e6c9a5fecec5aa.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies) 551 579 59605 10.22059/ier.2016.59605 EN Hossein-Ali Fakher Department of Environmental Economics, Faculty of Environment and Energy, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2016 05 16 Abstract T he relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. On the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. So keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth rate of output. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of budget deficit, broad money supply, real GDP, import price index, interest rate and exchange rate on inflation ( price deflator) in selected Asian economics, namely China, Japan, Korea, India, Taiwan, and Singapore in the period of 1993-2013. By applying the Pooled Mean Group estimation-based error correction model and the panel differenced (General Method of Moment) Arellano-Bond estimator, the study finds out budget deficit, real GDP and exchange rate are statistically significant determinants of inflation in both methods of estimation.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59605_abf085d19e5070379fa4b70f7bd9eeb6.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 Analyzing Determinants of Tax Morale based on Social Psychology Theory: Case study of Iran 581 598 59611 10.22059/ier.2016.59611 EN MirHadi Hosseini Kondelaji Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Majid Sameti Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Hadi Amiri Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Rozita Moayedfar Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Journal Article 2016 04 09 While economic deterrence models are fully based on maximizing economic utility; social psychology models explain human behavior by examining the underlying attitudes, norms and beliefs. Tax morale is defined as the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes. However, determinants of tax morale need to be investigated for a more comprehensive understanding of tax morale. In this paper we analyze the most important determinants of tax morale in Iran using data from World Values Surveys (WVS). Determinants of tax morale are categorized into four main groups: social capital, conditional cooperation, demographic factors and economic situation of the respondents. Estimating ordered probit model, we find that conditional cooperation and economic situation have the most important effects on tax morality. However, some of the social capital variables like importance of politics and religion and demographic factors like gender and marital status don’t have significant effect on tax morale in Iran.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59611_439dcfbc56571dc31b96c814d9e2a6fa.pdf

University of Tehran Iranian Economic Review 1026-6542 20 4 2016 10 01 An Impact Estimator Using Propensity Score Matching: People’s Business Credit Program to Micro Entrepreneurs in Indonesia 599 615 59612 10.22059/ier.2016.59612 EN Farida Farida Faculty of Economics, Persada YAI University, Jakarta, Indonesia. Hermanto Siregar Department of Economics, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia. Nunung Nuryartono Department of Economics, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia. Eka Intan K.P Department of Resource and Enviromental Economics, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia. Journal Article 2016 04 20 P eople’s business credit program (KUR) has been launched to alleviate poverty through provision of micro financing to micro entrepreneurs in Indonesia This study aims to estimate the impact of KUR program using cross-sectional data and propensity score matching technique (PSM). The survey was conducted on 332 household entrepreneurs, consisting of 155 KUR receivers and 177 non-KUR receivers. Results show that KUR has impacts on increasing profits, total revenues, number of employees, and asset ownerships. KUR program also has impacted on reduction of food spending share. As such, KUR can play an important role to alleviate poverty and unemployment.

https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_59612_ca1e97c873b51e2391cde184d0e5f549.pdf