The Population Aging Effect on Pattern of Export (Case of Major Trade Partners of Iran)


Faculty of Economics, Management, and Administrative Science, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.


The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of population aging effect on trade in major trade partners of Iran during the period 2000-2015. In this paper, we show that demographic differences between countries are a source of comparative advantage in international trade. Since many skills are age-dependent, population aging decreases the relative supply and increases the relative price of skills, which depreciate with age. Thus, industries relying on skills in which younger workers are relatively more efficient will be more productive in countries with a younger labor force and less productive in countries with an older population. The results indicated that the secondary education group and the average age of people between the ages of 20-40 and 41-65 years had a positive and significant effect on the exports compared to the elementary and excellent education groups. The results showed that human capital in more experienced age groups by improving job skills leads to comparative advantage and increases in exports of countries.