The Role of Oil Revenue Shocks in Iranian Economy, A TVP- VAR Approach


Faculty of Economics , University of Tehran.


In this paper, we analyze the effects of oil revenue shocks on different sectors of the Iranian economy. We use quarterly data of the Iranian economy from 1988:2 to 2011:1 to analyze a time-varying parameter VAR model with the Bayesian method. The results show that in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the positive effects of oil revenue were mostly emerged in the industrial and oil sectors, having almost no effect on services sector and negative effect on agricultural sector. In the 2000s, oil revenue is relatively less effective in the industrial sector, while more effective in the agricultural and services sectors.  


1- Canova, F. (1993) Modeling and Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17(1-2), 233-261.
2- Cogley, T. and Sargent, T.G. (2005) Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S, Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 262-302.
3- De Jong, P. and Shepard, N. (1995) The Simulation Smoother for Time Series Models, Biometrika 82, 339-50.
4- Esfahani, H.S. and Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H., (2012), An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.
5- Farzanegan, M.R. (2011) Oil Revenue Shocks and Government Spending behavior in Iran, Energy Economics, 33, 1055-1069.
6- Farzanegan, M.R. and Markwardt, G. (2009) The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy, Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.
7- Hamilton, J.D. (1996) This is What Happened to the Oil PriceMacroeconomy Relationship, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 215-220.
8-Jimenez-Rodriguez, R. and Sanchez, M. (2005) Oil Price Shocks and Real Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Applied Economics, 37,201-228.
9- Mojab, Ramin and Mahdi, S. Barakchian (2011), The Effects of Oil Revenues Shocks on Real Non-oil Output, Pool va Eghtesad, 9, 45-89 (Text in Persian).
10- Rosser, A. (2006) Escaping the Resource Curse, New Political Economy, 11(4), 557-570.
11- Sims, C.A. (1993) A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model, NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 179-212.
12- Sims, C.A., Stock, J.S. and Watson, M.W. (1990) Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots, Econometrica, 58(1), 113-144.
13- Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.W. (1996) Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(1), 11-30.