2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies

Authors

Department of Economics, American University of Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan.

Abstract

Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$) with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationship between oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal Component Analysis and integrated in the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed in simpler signals called approximations and details in the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are recomposed after Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullish for the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. 2050 spectral analysis projections rank Iraq first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the 2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). 2024 spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79% when IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) and United Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections are Qatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%) when the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are Saudi Arabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt Persian Gulf Economies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The individual impact on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respective governments.
 

Keywords