2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies

Rostan, Pierre; Rostan, Alexandra

doi:10.22059/ier.2022.88164

2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies

Authors

Pierre Rostan

Alexandra Rostan

College of Business, American University of Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq

10.22059/ier.2022.88164

Abstract

Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$)
with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationship
between oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal Component
Analysis and integrated into the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed into clearer signals called
approximations and details in the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis framework. The
simplified signals are recomposed after the Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullish
for the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. Two thousand fifty spectral analysis projections rank Iraq
first with an annual growth rate of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the
2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). Two thousand
twenty-four spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate compounded of
+4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79%. In comparison, IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) and
United Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections are
Qatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%), while the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are Saudi
Arabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brutally hurt the Persian Gulf
Economies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The
individual effect on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respective
governments.

Keywords

GDP

Spectral Analysis

Forecasts

Multiscale Principal Component Analysis

Persian Gulf Economies

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