A Closer Look at the Nexus between Oil Price and Non-Oil Revenue in Nigeria

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of oil price variations on non-oil revenue performance in Nigeria which, to our knowledge, has not received adequate empirical scrutiny. This issue is at the forefront of government policy plans which seek to improve non-oil revenue inflows.  Utilizing dynamic time series modelling approach to analyze data from 2010M1 to 2020M12, the findings reveal that oil price dampens non-oil revenue mobilization efforts in the short-run but is positive in the long run. This indicates that the Dutch disease hypothesis holds in the short-run but not in the long run. Also, a depreciation of the exchange rate was found to improve non-oil revenue inflows. Robustness checks using disaggregated non-oil revenue: trade taxes (import duties and levies) and domestic taxes (value-added tax, corporate, and personal income tax) validate the findings. Therefore, policy measures aimed at building up domestic revenue are required to minimize oil revenue dependency.

Keywords