The Level of Population Carrying Capacity, Natural Resources and Pollution: A Case of Iran

Authors

1 Department of Economics, University of Larestan, Fars, Iran.

2 Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.

Abstract

A country’s population carrying capacity is the maximum population a country can tolerate depending on its resources and environmental conditions. An awareness of a country’s population carrying capacity can be of great help to development planners. Despite the importance of this variable, few studies have attempted to estimate it, particularly at the country level on which no study was found to have focused. The present study aimed to calculate the population carrying capacity of Iran using the expanded logistic equation, the generalized extractable energy resources equation, and the Extraction-environmental Kuznets curve (XEKC). The population growth rate of Iran, as a country with abundant primary energy and natural resources, has always been positive and its population now stands at about 83 million. The simultaneous estimation of parameters from three equations using multi-objective optimization showed that Iran’s population carrying capacity was about 95 million. It is important to note that this estimate of the population carrying capacity was based on Iran’s current economic growth. This means that with the growth and expansion of the economy, the population carrying capacity of Iran can be estimated higher. Also, the EKC was established with 99.5% confidence for the Iranian economy, and the value of the per capita income at the turning point of the inverted U-shaped curve was 0.435 billion Rials. Meanwhile, the amount of GDP per capita for the Iranian economy was 0.157 billion Rials at the time of this study, showing Iranian economy was on the upward sloping portion of the curve.

Keywords


Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 76, 123–131.
Aruga, K. (2019). Investigating the Energy-Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for the Asia-Pacific Region. Sustainability, 11, 2395-2402.
Bao, H. , Chengcheng, W., Lu H., Shaohua, W., Liming, L., Baogen, X., & Yanfang, (2020). Resources and Environmental Pressure, Carrying Capacity, and Governance: a Case Study of Yangtze River Economic Belt. Sustainability, 12, 1576.
Beyene, S. D., & Kotosz, B. (2019). Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: an Empirical Study for East African Countries. International Journal of Environmental Studies, 12, 34-56.
Chen, P. Y., Chen, S. T., Hsu, C. S., & Chen, C. C. (2016). Modeling the Global Relationships among Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 65, 420-431.
Chishti, M. (2020). Analysis of the Nexus between Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Role of Capital Stock. Iranian Economic Review, 26(3), 489-510.
Dadgara, Y., & Nazari, R. (2017). The Impact of Good Governance on Environmental Pollution in South West Asian Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 5(1), 49-63.
Daghighi Asli, A., Geraeinezhad, G., & Ajaeebi, N. (2017). Population and Water: Determining the Optimal Population Size Based on the Fresh Water Resources in Iran. Iranian Population Studies, 1(5), 163-182.
Dallali Esfahani, R., & Esmailzadeh, R. (2006). An Investigation on Theory of Population- Limited Institutional Approach. Economics Research, 6(3), 71-96.
De Groot, H. L., Withagen, C. A., & Minliang, Z. (2004). Dynamics of China's Regional Development and Pollution: an Investigation into the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and Development Economics, 9(4), 507-537.
Dehghan Shabani, Z., Akbari, N., & Dalali Esfahani, R. (2012). Effect of Population Density, Division and Distance on Regional Economic Growth. Iranian Economic Review, 16(31), 101-121.
Figueirôa, S. F., Fernanda, S., Gregory, A. G., & Drielli, P. (2019). History, Exploration & Exploitation of Oil and Gas. Berlin: Springer.
Gholizade Sarabi, S., & Rahnama, M. R. (2015). Urban Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Development Density in the Ninth Region of Mashhad. Geography and Environmental Planning, 26(4), 263-286.
Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper, 3914, 1-57.
Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic Growth and the Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
Jalil, A., & Feridun, M. (2010). The Impact of Growth, Energy and Financial Development on the Environment in China: a Cointegration Analysis. Energy Economics, 12(3), 284-291.
Joardar, S. D. (1998). Carrying Capacities and Standards as Bases towards Urban Infrastructure Planning in India: A Case of Urban Water Supply and Sanitation. Habitat International, 22, 327-337.
Kadafa, A. A. (2012). Environmental Impacts of Oil Exploration and Exploitation in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research Environment & Earth Sciences, 12(3), 19-28.
Lawson, N., & Spears, D. (2018). Optimal Population and Exhaustible Resource Constraints. Journal of Population Economics, 31, 295-335.
Li, K., Xiaolong, J., Danxun, M., & Penghui, J. (2019). Evaluation of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity of China’s Rapid-Urbanization Areas: A Case Study of Xinbei District. Changzhou Land, 8, 69-80.
Lukman, A., Oluwayemi, M. O., Okoro, J., & Onate, C. (2019). The Impacts of Population Change and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions in Nigeria. Iranian Economic Review, 23(3), 715-731.
Liu, H. M. (2012). Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the Urban Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta China. Habitat International, 36, 462-470.
Luzzati, T., & Orsini, M. (2009). Investigating the Energy-Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy, 34, 291-300.
Marsiglio, S., Ansuategi, A., & Gallastegui, M. C. (2016). The Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Structural Change Hypothesis. Environmental and Resource Economics, 63(2), 265-288.
Menyah, K., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2010). CO2 Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy and Economic Growth in the US. Energy Policy, 38, 2911-2915.
Moutinho, V., Varum, C., & Madaleno, M. (2017). How Economic Growth Affects Emissions? An Investigation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Portuguese and Spanish Economic Activity Sectors. Energy Policy, 106, 326-344.
Oh, K., Jeong, Y., Lee, D. K., Lee, W., & Choi, J. (2005). Determining Development Density Using the Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment System. Landscape and Urban Planning, 73, 1-15.
Onishi, T. A. (1994). Capacity Approach for Sustainable Urban Development: An Empirical Study. Regional Studies, 28, 39-51.
Orubu, C. O., & Omotor, D. G. (2011). Environmental Quality and Economic Growth: Searching for Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air and Water Pollutants in Africa. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4178-4188.
Özokcu, S., & Özdemir, Ö. (2017). Economic Growth, Energy, and Environmental Kuznets Curve. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 639-647.
Palivos, T. H., & Yip, C. K. (1993). Optimal Population Size and Endogenous Growth, Economics Letters, 41(1), 107-110.
Panayotou, T. (1993). Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. International Labor Organization, Working Paper, 238, 1-23.
Rees, W., & Wackernagel, M. (1996). Urban Ecological Footprints: Why Cities Cannot Be Sustainable and Why They Are A Key to Sustainability. New York: Elsevier.
Santoso, E. B., Erli, H. K. D. M., Aulia, B. U., & Ghozali, A. (2014) Concept of Carrying Capacity: Challenges in Spatial Planning (Case Study of East Java Province, Indonesia). Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, 135, 130-135.
Schroll, H., & Ansersen. J. (2012). Carrying Capacity: An Approach to Local Spatial Planning in Indonesia. The Journal of Tran disciplinary Environmental Studies, 11(1), 27-39.
Sun, Y. J., & Lin, C. (2018). Study on the Relationship between Environmental Regulation and the Quality of China's Economic Growth: A Perspective Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 3, 9-23.
Suri, V., & Chapman, D. (1998) Economic Growth, Trade and Energy: Implications for the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Ecological Economics, 25, 195-208.
Swart, J., & Brinkmann, L. (2020). Economic Complexity and the Environment: Evidence from Brazil. In W. L. Filho, U. Tortato, F. Frankenberger (Ed.), Universities and Sustainable Communities: Meeting the Goals of the Agenda 2030. Berlin: Springer.
Wei, Y. G., Huang, C., Li, J., & Xie, L. L. (2016). An Evaluation Model for Urban Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Chinaʹs Mega‐Cities. Habitat International, 53, 87-96.