Systemic Risk between Cryptocurrencies and Real Currencies Using the Conditional Value at Risk Approach and Marginal Expected Shortfall

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze and measure the systemic risk between cryptocurrencies and real currencies using a value approach in conditional risk exposure and expected marginal shortfall. Systemic risk in finance means the probability of a sudden crash of an entire financial system. This risk can lead to inconsistency or chaos in financial markets. Another important matter in the discussion of systemic risk is the contagion of risk, which is the probability of the spread of major economic changes in a country. In this research, statistical data of real and virtual currencies over the years 2015-2020 are used. For this purpose, the indices of systemic risk were calculated using CoVaR and MES, and then the correlation between the systemic risks of the evaluated currencies was created. In this analysis, the statistical data of the currencies of the exchange rate of the Pound to the Dollar, the exchange rate of the Yuan to the Dollar, the exchange rate of the Lira to the Dollar, the exchange rate of the euro to the Dollar, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and Ethereum Classic based on the daily price turnover of cryptocurrencies and real currencies are used. The result showed that there was a correlation between the systemic risk indices in relation to the studied currencies and virtual currencies had a lower systemic risk index than real currencies.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abrishami, H., Mehrara, M., & Rahmani, M. (2019). Measuring and Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Iranian Banking Sector and Examining the Factors Affecting it. Econometric Modeling, 4(3), 11-36.
Ahmadi, Z., & Farhanian, S. M. J. (2014). Measuring Inclusive Risk with CoVaR and MES Approach in Tehran Stock Exchange. Quarterly Journal of Stock Exchange, 7(26), 12-36 (In Persian).
Hosseini, S. A., & Razavi, S. S. (2014). The Role of Capital in Systemic Risk of Financial Institutions, Experimental Accounting Research in Accounting, 4(13), 127–147 (In Persian).
Rastegar, M. A., & Karimi, N. (2016). Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector. Journal of Risk Modeling and Financial Engineering, 1(1), 12–24 (In Persian).
Eivazloo, R., & Rameshg, M. (2019). Measurement of Systemic Risk with the Used of the Final Expected Fraction and Conditional Value at Risk and Ranking of Banks. Asset Management and Financing, 7(4), 1–16 (In Persian).
Gujarati, D. (2006). Fundamentals of Econometrics (Trans. by H. Abrishami). Tehran: University of Tehran Press.
Nazarpour, M. N., & Rezaei, A. (2013). Credit Risk Management in Islamic Banking with the Approach of Reviewing Contracts and Facility Payment Pattern. Islamic Financial Research Quarterly, 2(4), 123–156 (In Persian).
Acharya, V., Pedersen, L., Philippon, T., & Richardson, M. (2017). Measuring Systemic Risk. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(1), 2–47.
Adrian, T., & Brunnermeier, M. K. (2011). CoVaR. NBER Working Paper, 17454, 1-14.
Arnold, B. R., Borio, C., Luci, E., & Moshirian, F. (2012). Systemic Risk, Basel III, Global Financial Stability and Regulation. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(12), 138–153.
Billio, M., Getmansky, M., Lo, A. W, & Pelizzon, L. (2012). Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(3), 535–559.
Bisias, D., Flood, M. D., Lo, A. W., & Valavanis, S. (2012). A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 4(1), 255–296.
Brownlees, C., & Engle, R. (2012). Volatility, Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk Measurement. SSRN, 1611229, 1-37.
Chen, W., Xiang, G., Liu, Y., & Wang, K. (2016). Credit risk Evaluation by hybrid data mining technique. Systems Engineering Procedia, 3, 194–200.
Cont, R., Moussa, A., & Santos, E. B. (2010). Network Structure and Systemic Risk in Banking Systems. Working Paper Series, 219, 327–368.
Gaspar, V. (2012). Systemic Risk: Too Important to Ignore. Conference Organized by APB, Lisbon: Governo de Portugal.
Giglio, S., Kelly, B., & Pruitt, S. (2016). Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics, 119, 457–471.
Girardi, G., & Ergun, A. T. (2013). Systemic Risk Measurement: Multivariate GARCH Estimation of CoVaR. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(8), 3169–3180.
Laeven, L., Ratnovski, L., & Tong, H. (2016). Bank Size, Capital, and Systemic Risk: Some International Evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 69, S25–S34.
Yun, J., & Moon, H. (2014). Measuring Systemic Risk in the Korean Banking Sector via Dynamic Conditional Correlation Models. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 27, 94–114.