Understanding the Risks in Faith-Based Equity Investments: A Markov Regime Switching Analysis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Management Studies, Bodoland University, Assam, India.

2 Department of Management Studies, NIT Durgapur, West Bengal, India.

Abstract

Understanding the risks associated with faith-based equity investments assumes greater significance in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has once again exposed the susceptibility of the financial space to shocks. We use the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model to capture the time-varying beta and idiosyncratic volatility of the US Islamic, US Catholic and Switzerland Islamic equity portfolios provided by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) using daily index returns data during July 2017 to July 2021. Further complementing the country-level evidence, we refer to the global ACWI Islamic index and World Catholic Values Custom Index. The evidence suggests that the US and Switzerland Islamic portfolio have lower systematic risks during the calm and crisis period. Further, the global Islamic portfolio has lower systematic risks during the calm and crisis period, which signifies the robustness of the evidence. The US and global Catholic portfolio does not exhibit the same risk characteristics.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abduh, M. (2020). Volatility of Malaysian Conventional and Islamic Indices: does Financial Crisis Matter? Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 11(1), 1-11.
Ahern, K. R. (2009). Sample Selection and Event Study Estimation. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(3), 466-482.
Alam, M., & Ansari, V. A. (2020). Are Islamic Indices A Viable Investment Avenue? An Empirical Study of Islamic and Conventional Indices in India.  International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 13(3), 503-518.
Al-Awadhi, A. M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 1-8.
Al-Zoubi, H. A., & Maghyereh, A. I. (2007). The Relative Risk Performance of Islamic Finance: A New Guide to Less Risky Investments. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 10(02), 235-249.
Antipova, T. (2021). Coronavirus Pandemic as Black Swan Event. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems (LNNS), 136, 356-366.
Anwer, Z., Mohamad, S. M. R., & Rasid, M. E. S. M. (2019). Is there a Cost for Adopting Faith-Based Investment Styles? In Islamic Corporate Finance (1st Ed.). London: Routledge.
Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock Markets’ Reaction to COVID-19: Cases or Fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 1-10.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.
Beer, F., Estes, J., & Deshayes, C. (2014). The Performance of the Faith and Ethical Investment Products: A Comparison Before and After the 2008 Meltdown.  Financial Services Review, 23(2), 151-167.
Bhattacharjee, N., & De, A. (2022). Time-Varying Risks in ESG Equity Investments during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Global Business Review, 23(6), 1388-1402.
Christie, A. A. (1982). The Stochastic Behavior of Common Stock Various Value, Leverage and Interest Rate Effects. Journal of Financial Economics, 10, 407-432.
Czech, K., & Wielechowski, M. (2021). Is the Alternative Energy Sector COVID-19 Resistant? Comparison with the Conventional Energy Sector: Markov-Switching Model Analysis of Stock Market Indices of Energy Companies. Energies, 14, 988-998.
Dewandaru, G., Bacha, O. I., Masih, A., Mansur, M., & Masih, R. (2015). Risk-Return Characteristics of Islamic Equity Indices: Multi-Timescales Analysis. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 29, 115-138.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
Engle, R. F., & Ng, V. K. (1993). Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility. Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1749-1778.
Farebrother, R. W. (1980). The Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation when there is no Intercept in the Regression. Econometrica, 48(6), 1553-1563.
Granger, C. W., & Terasvirta, T. (1993). Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Garcia, R., & Perron, P. (1996). An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78, 111-125.
Hansen, B. (1992). The Likelihood Ratio Test under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, 61–82.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. 
Haroon, O., Ali, M., Khan, A., Khattak, M. A., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2021). Financial Market Risks during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(8), 2407-2414.
Hill, J. (2020). Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing. New York: Elsevier.
Korley, M., & Giouvris, E. (2021). The Regime-Switching Behaviour of Exchange Rates and Frontier Stock Market Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(3), 1-30.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-187.
Lin, X., & Falk, M. T. (2021). Nordic Stock Market Performance of the Travel and Leisure Industry during the First Wave of Covid-19 Pandemic. Tourism Economics, 28(5), 1240-1257.
Lintner, J. (1965). The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, 13-37.
Liu, X., Margaritis, D., & Wang, P. (2012). Stock Market Volatility and Equity Returns: Evidence from a Two-State Markov-Switching Model with Regressors. Journal of Empirical Finance, 19, 483-496.
Lyn, E. O., & Zychowicz, E. J. (2010). The Impact of Faith-Based Screens on Investment Performance. The Journal of Investing, 19(3), 136-143.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Morales, L., & Andreosso-O’callaghan, B. (2020). Covid-19-Global Stock Markets “Black Swan.” Critical Letters in Economics & Finance, 1(1), 1-14.
Pericoli, M., & Sbracia, M. (2003). A Primer on Financial Contagion. Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(4), 571-608.
Persio, L., & Vettori, S. (2014). Markov Switching Model Analysis of Implied Volatility for Market Indexes with Applications to S&P 500 and DAX. Journal of Mathematics, 753852, 1-18.
Psaradakis, Z., & Spagnolo, N. (2003). On the Determination of The Number of Regimes in Markov - Switching Autoregressive Models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 24(2), 237-252.
Rizvi, S. A. R., & Arshad, S. (2018). Understanding Time-Varying Systematic Risks in Islamic and Conventional Sectoral Indices. Economic Modelling, 70, 561-570.
Sensoy, A. (2016) Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets. International Review of Finance, 16(3), 457-466.
Sharpe, W. F. (1963). A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis. Management Science, 9(2), 277-293.
Stapleton, R. C., & Subrahmanyam, M. G. (1983). The Market Model and Capital Asset Pricing Theory: A Note. The Journal of Finance, 38(5), 1637-1642.
Umar, Z., & Gubareva, M. (2021) Faith-based Investments and the Covid-19 Pandemic: Analyzing Equity Volatility and Media Coverage Time-Frequency Relations. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 67, 1-10.
Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 1-15.