Unravelling the Complexities of Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: A Focus on Determinants

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Center for Economic Planning and Development, Minhaj University Lahore, Pakistan.

2 School of Economics of Economics, Minhaj University Lahore, Pakistan.

3 International Center for Research in Islamic Economics, Minhaj University Lahore, Pakistan.

Abstract

This study seeks to investigate the relationship between rainfall, temperature, environmental change, agricultural credit, and total factor productivity, all of which affect agricultural productivity in Pakistan from 1990 to 2020. To estimate the data, we apply the unit root test to investigate stationarity, and it is determined that some variables are   and others are  . Then, the ARDL model is used to examine the long-run and short-run effects. Our empirical findings indicate that agricultural credit, temperature, and total factor productivity positively and significantly affect agricultural output in the short and long run, helping to boost productivity. In addition, rainfall and environmental change have adverse and significant short- and long-run effects on agricultural productivity. Stability experiments have confirmed the model's stability. The study concludes that it is necessary to introduce seed and crop varieties that are more resistant to rainfall and environmental change. In addition, greater emphasis should be placed on research and development.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Iranian Economic Review
Volume 30, Issue 1
March 2026
Pages 273-296

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