Response of food and non-food price changes to global oil structural shocks: Evidence from SVAR to the Iran economy

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative sciences, Arak University, Arak, Iran

3 Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

10.22059/ier.2024.368725.1007866

Abstract

This article empirically analyzed the relationship between oil structural shocks and Iran's food and non-food inflation. The study was conducted within the SVAR model framework using monthly data from April 2004 to March 2018. However, the choice of the starting and ending dates was based on the availability of the time series data. The impulse response analysis suggested that oil-specific demand shocks caused by supply disruptions positively affected food and non-food prices in Iran. In addition, the results indicated that in the post-sanction period, one standard deviation of oil-specific demand shock led to an immediate increase in food prices compared to pre-sanction years. This also revealed that oil price volatility shocks played a more pronounced role in food price variability than oil price change. Moreover, given Iran’s economic features, we found that the exchange rate disruptions positively impacted the change in food and nonfood prices. Finally, based on this evidence, the findings offer critical implications for Iran's policymakers.

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Iranian Economic Review

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 19 February 2024

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