Evaluating N-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve for Economic Growth, Globalization, and Investment Flows in India: An ARDL Bound Test Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Commerce, Hindu College, University of Delhi, Delhi -110007, India.

Abstract

India introduced globalization and liberalization measures in 1991 that supported FDI inflows and encouraged massive industrialization. Simultaneously, in the last few decades, India has experienced an upsurge in carbon emissions. Weaker environmental norms might be positioning India as a sought-after destination for production units that are environmentally hazardous. Hence, the present study is an attempt to empirically evaluate whether an upsurge in industrialization, investment inflows, and globalization has been detrimental to India's environment. The study employs the N-shaped EKC hypothesis (for India) to capture the association between carbon emissions and GDP per capita, carbon emissions and FDI inflows, and carbon emissions and globalization, using three different model specifications with time series data for the period 1991–2021. Unit root testing was conducted using the ADF and PP tests to examine stationarity, and the ARDL bounds test was employed to validate the long-run results. The results for the CO₂–GDP per capita model weakly supported the presence of an N-shaped EKC, whereas the outcomes for the CO₂–FDI inflows model strongly endorsed the N-shaped curve for India. The results for the CO₂–globalization model supported the N-shaped EKC, but only for the long-run coefficients. The results indicate that strong policy measures are required, particularly to address India's FDI inflows, as India is likely to face environmental deterioration after reaching the trough point.

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References

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Iranian Economic Review
Volume 30, Issue 1
March 2026
Pages 140-175

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