Assessing the Saudi Vision plan with its 2030 and 2050 projections

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

College of Business, American University of Iraq, Baghdad (AUIB)

10.22059/ier.2024.369480.1007879

Abstract

This study aims at evaluating with forecast estimates the Saudi Vision 2030 plan implemented in 2016 to create a prosperous economy based on diversification to counter its dependence on the oil industry and to improve competitiveness. The 4-step methodology is based on a wavelet analysis forecasting model which generates two sets of forecast estimates of quarterly real GDP obtained from historical data 1) including the Vision plan evaluation period (from Q4 2009 to Q4 2022) and 2) not including the Vision plan evaluation period (from Q4 2009 to Q4 2016). The authors assume that the difference between the average growth rates of the two sets of forecast estimates is an indicator of the impact of the Vision plan on the Saudi economy, the more positive the difference, the more successful the impact of the Vision plan on the economy. The findings reveal that, based on this criterion, the Saudi Vision 2030 plan will have a significant and positive impact on the Saudi economy until 2030, but will need an additional boost to succeed after 2030. The originality of this research lies in its methodology, results and in the choice of using a forecasting model borrowed from physics, assuming that quarterly real GDP time series behave like wavelets and are therefore predictable.

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Iranian Economic Review

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 26 February 2024

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