Economic and Environmental Consequences of Internal and External Shocks in Net Oil-importing and Exporting Economies: A Structural VAR

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Economics, University of UKM, Selangor, Malaysia; Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Energy Economics & Resources, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Department of Resource and Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

Abstract

The main aim of our research is to use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis to examine the effects of various shocks (oil price, exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate) on inflation and economic growth in selected net oil-exporting (NOE) and net-oil importing (NOI) countries. It also explores the implications of these shocks for efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The study finds that supply shocks, such as oil price fluctuations, significantly affect inflation and economic growth in most NOE and NOI countries. In contrast, demand shocks primarily affect inflation fluctuations and contribute to output fluctuations in most of these countries. Additionally, it is observed that in most NOE and NOI countries, except Morocco and Jordan, inflation rates respond positively and significantly to global oil price shocks, while GDP reacts negatively to positive exchange rate and pollution shocks. On the other hand, domestic inflation reacts negatively to exchange rate shocks in NOE-4 and NOI countries. Our research contributes to a better understanding of the macroeconomic effects of external and internal shocks (oil price, exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate) in NOE and NOI countries. Moreover, the research highlights the implications of these shocks for efforts to reduce carbon emissions in these countries, emphasizing the importance of understanding their macroeconomic effects.

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Main Subjects

References

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Iranian Economic Review
Volume 30, Issue 1
March 2026
Pages 233-272

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