The Impact of Economic Determinants on Terrorism in Iraq during the Period 2000-2020

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Faculty of Economics, Salahaddin University, Erbil, Iraq

10.22059/ier.2024.346296.1007505

Abstract

There are many economic, social, and political determinants impact a country's degree of terrorism. In this study, we attempt to reveal the influence of the most major macroeconomic determinants on the consequences of terrorist actions in Iraq, which measured by the Terrorism Index (TI), during the years 2000 - 2020. This was done using descriptive statistics and econometric methodologies such as Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL), Error Correction Model (ECM), Variance Decomposition (VD), and VAR Impulse Response (VAR). According to the findings, the inflation rate has a long-term positive association with terrorism in Iraq, but GDP growth, unemployment, income inequality, and political stability all have a negative link with terrorism, ceteris paribus. Regarding the short-term determinants, the inflation rate has a positive relationship with TI, whereas the GINI coefficient has a negative impact on TI. The rate of adjustment from the previous year's TI disequilibrium to the current year's equilibrium is 81.9%.

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Main Subjects

References

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Iranian Economic Review
Volume 28, Issue 3
September 2024
Pages 754-787

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