Economic Complexity and Shadow Economy in Africa

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria

2 Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

10.22059/ier.2024.346815.1007510

Abstract

In line with the nascent literature on economic complexity, this paper answers whether economic complexity impacts the size of the shadow economy in African economies, a region confronted with a large amount of informal economic operations. We apply four classes of mean group estimators (mean group, augmented mean group, common correlated effects mean group, and dynamic common correlated effects mean group) on African panel data of 27 economies from 1995 to 2017. There is no significant evidence to justify that economic complexity affects the size of the shadow economy in the mean group. However, in the group-specific coefficients, the relationship is significantly negative for the Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Uganda, while the opposite result is confirmed for Botswana, Madagascar, and Tunisia. The study concludes that the impact of economic complexity is heterogeneous in the case of African economies. The policy implications of the results are discussed.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abuamria, F. M. J. (2019). The Effect of Deterrence Factors on Discourage Shadow Economy Level and Tax Evasion. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 9(1), 62-67.
Aluko, O. A., & Ibrahim, M. (2020). Institutions and Financial Development in ECOWAS. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 11(2), 187-198.
Ajide, F. M., Dada, J. T., & Olowookere, J. K. (2022). Shadow Economy and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigerian Manufacturing Industry. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 23(2), 156-180.
Ajide, F. M. (2022). Economic Complexity and Entrepreneurship: Insights from Africa. International Journal of Development Issues, 21(3), 367-388.
---------- (2021). Shadow Economy in Africa: How Relevant Is Financial Inclusion? Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 29(3), 297-316.
Ajide, F. M., & Dada, J. T. (2022). The Impact of ICT on Shadow Economy in West Africa. International Social Science Journal, 72(245), 749-767.
Allingham, M., & Agnar, S. (1972). Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis. Journal of Public Economics,1/3–4, 323-338.
Awasthi R., & Engelschalk, M. (2018). Taxation and the Shadow Economy: How the Tax System Can Stimulate and Enforce the Formalization of Business Activities. Policy Research Working Paper, 8391, 1-52.
Bajada, C., &  Schneider, F. (2009). Unemployment and the Shadow Economy in the OECD. Presses de Sciences-Po, 60(5),1033-1067.
Baklouti, N., & Boujelbene, Y. (2018). A Simultaneous Equation Model of Economic Growth and Shadow Economy: Is There A Difference between the Developed and Developing Countries? Economic Change and Restructuring, 53, 151-170,
Batrancea, L., Nichita, A., Batrancea, I., & Gaban, L. (2017). The Strenght of the Relationship between Shadow Economy and Corruption: Evidence From A Worldwide Country-Sample. Social Indicators Research, 138, 1119-1143.
Bitzenis, A., Vlachos, V., & Schneider, F. (2016). An Exploration of the Greek Shadow Economy: Can Its Transfer into the Official Economy Provide Economic Relief amid the Crisis? Journal of Economic Issues, 50(1), 165-196.
Canh, P. N., Christophe, S., & Su Dinh, Th. (2020). What are the Drivers of Shadow Economy? A Further Evidence of Economic Integration and Institutional Quality. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(1), 47-67.
Canh, P. N., & Su  Dinh, Th. (2020a). Financial Development and the Shadow Economy: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 67, 37-54.
Canh, P. N., & Su  Dinh, Th. (2020b). Exports and the Shadow Economy: Non-Linear Effects. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(7), 865-890.
Canh, P. N., Christophe, S., & Su Dinh, Th. (2021). What are the Drivers of Shadow Economy? A Further Evidence of Economic Integration and Institutional Quality.  The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(1), 47-67.
Cervero, R. (2000). Informal Transport in the Developing World. Nairobi: UN-Habitat.
Choi, J. P., & Thum, M. (2005). Corruption and the Shadow Economy. International Economic Review, 46(3), 817-836.
Dada, J. T., & Ajide, F. M. (2021). The Moderating Role of Institutional Quality in Shadow Economy-Pollution Nexus in Nigeria. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 32(3), 506-523.
Dada, J. T., Ajide, F. M., & Adeiza, A. (2021a). Shadow Economy and Environmental Pollution in West African Countries: The Role of Institutions. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 14(3), 366-389.
Dada, J. T., Ajide, F. M., & Sharimakin, A. (2021b). Shadow Economy, Institutions and Environmental Pollution: Insights from Africa. World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, 18(2), 153-171.
Dada, J. T., Ajide, F. M., Arnaut, M., & Adeiza, A. (2022). On the Shadow Economy-Environmental Sustainability Nexus In Africa: The (Ir)Relevance Of Financial Development. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 30(1), 6-20.
Dell’Anno, R. (2021). Theories and Definitions of the Informal Economy: A Survey. Journal of Economic Surveys36(5), 1610-1643.
Dreher, A., Kotsogiannis, Ch., & McCorriston, S. (2009). How Do Institutions Affect Corruption and the Shadow Economy? International Tax and Public Finance, 16(6), 773-796.
Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating Panel Time-Series Model with Heterogeneous Slopes. StataJournal, 12(1), 61-71.
Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-Sectional Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA, 17692, 1-28.
Elgin, C. (2012). Cyclicality of Shadow Economy. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 31(4), 478-490.
Estrin, S., & Mickiewicz, T. (2012). Shadow Economy and Entrepreneurial Entry. Review of Development Economics, 16(4), 559–578.
Ferrarini, B., & Pasquale, S. (2016). Production Complexity, Adaptability, and Economic Growth. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 37, 52-61.
Friedman, E., Johnson, S., Kaufmann, D., & Zoido-Lobaton, P. (2000). Dodging the Grabbing Hand: The Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries. Journal of Public Economics, 76, 459-493
Ginevicius, R., Kliestik, T., Stasiukynas, A., & Suhajda, K. (2020). The Impact of National Economic Development on the Shadow Economy. Journal of Competitiveness, 12(3), 39-55.
Goel, R. K., & Nelson, M. A. (2016). Shining a Light on the Shadows: Identifying Robust Determinants of the Shadow Economy. Economic Modelling, 58, 351-364.
Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
Ihrig, J., & Moe, K. S. (2004). Lurking in the Shadows: The Informal Sector and Government Policy. Journal of Development Economics, 73(2), 541-557.
Lapatinas, A. (2019). The Effect of the Internet on Economic Sophistication: An Empirical Analysis. Economics Letters, 174, 35-38.
Lewis, A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 23, 1-30.
Luong, T. T. H., Tho, M. N., & Thi, A. N. N. (2020). Rule of Law, Economic Growth and Shadow Economy in Transition Countries. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 145-154.
Medina, L., & Schneider, F. (2019). Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One. CESifo Working Paper, 7981, 1-55.
Nguyen, C. P. (2022). Does Economic Complexity Matter for the Shadow Economy? Economic Analysis and Policy, 73, 210-227.
Njangang, H., Ndeffo, L. N., Ngameni, J. P.(2020). Does Financial Development Reduce the Size of the Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan African Countries? African Development Review, 32(3), 375-391.
Osinubi, T., Adedoyin, A., Osinubi, O., & Ajide, F. (2022). Does Tourism Affect Sustainable Development in MINT Countries? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 15(1), 72-92.
Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. P. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
Pintea, M., & Thompson, P. (2007). Technological Complexity and Economic Growth.  Review of Economic Dynamics, 10(2), 276-293.
Remeikiene, R., Ligita, G., & Schneider, F. G. (2018). The Definition of Digital Shadow Economy. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 696–717.
Schneider, F. (2023). Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of the Non-Observed or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 15(1), 257-277.
Schneider, F. (2010). The Influence of Public Institutions on the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for OECD Countries. Review of Law and Economics, 6(3), 441-468.
Schneider, F., & Andreas, B. (2018). Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open Questions. Open Economics, 1(1), 1-29.
Singh, A., Sonali, J. Ch., & Adil, M. (2012). Inclusive Growth, Institutions, and the Underground Economy. IMF Working Paper, WP/12/47, 1-14.
Vu, T. V. (2019). Does Institutional Quality Foster Economic Complexity? MPRA, 107912, 1-46.