It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s (1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (contained oil) data of Iran. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the data is chosen based on pretest examination of the data.
Abbasinejad,H , Abrishami,H and Kavand,H . (2007). Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 12(18), 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
MLA
Abbasinejad,H , , Abrishami,H , and Kavand,H . "Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran", Iranian Economic Review, 12, 18, 2007, 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
HARVARD
Abbasinejad H, Abrishami H, Kavand H. (2007). 'Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran', Iranian Economic Review, 12(18), pp. 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
CHICAGO
H Abbasinejad, H Abrishami and H Kavand, "Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran," Iranian Economic Review, 12 18 (2007): 1-28, doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
VANCOUVER
Abbasinejad H, Abrishami H, Kavand H. Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. IER. 2007;12(18):1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
