It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s (1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (contained oil) data of Iran. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the data is chosen based on pretest examination of the data.
Abbasinejad, H. , Abrishami, H. and Kavand, H. (2007). Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 12(18), 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
MLA
Abbasinejad, H. , , Abrishami, H. , and Kavand, H. . "Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran", Iranian Economic Review, 12, 18, 2007, 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
HARVARD
Abbasinejad, H., Abrishami, H., Kavand, H. (2007). 'Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran', Iranian Economic Review, 12(18), pp. 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
CHICAGO
H. Abbasinejad , H. Abrishami and H. Kavand, "Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran," Iranian Economic Review, 12 18 (2007): 1-28, doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
VANCOUVER
Abbasinejad, H., Abrishami, H., Kavand, H. Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 2007; 12(18): 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
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