The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

2 Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

In this paper, we have examined the effect of climate variables on the yield average and variability of major grain crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in Iran from 1983 to 2014. For this purpose, we made use of the Just and Pope Production Function crop yields panel data. The results revealed that the influences of climate variables were different in the crops. The time trend positively influenced the average crop yield and yield variability, but increasing in the maximum temperature had a negative impact on the grain yields. While the maximum temperature increased the risk of wheat production, this variable reduced the risk of maize and rice production. Minimum temperature and rainfall had positive influences on the average yields of the crops. Furthermore, minimum temperature decreased the production risk of maize and wheat. Finally, the influences of rainfall on the yield variability were positive for whole crops. Regional dummies were statistically significant for certain climate zones. It is expected that future climate changes reduce the mean yield of the crops, all the more showing the significance of crop insurance schemes and policies that mitigate insecurity of food in the light of expected climate variations in the coming years.
 

Keywords


Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Pearl, R. M., Ritchie, J. T., McCarl, B. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. B., Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., & Allen, L. H. (1990). Global Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture. Nature, 345, 219-224.

Adams, R. M., McCarl, B. A., Segerson, K., Rosenzweig, C., Bryant, K. J., Dixon, B. L., Connor, R., Evenson, R. B., & Ojima, D. (1999). Economic Effects of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture, In R. Mendelsohn & J. E. Neumann (Eds.), The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Alijani, F., Karbasi, A., & Mosannan, M. M.(2011). Survey of the Effects of Climate Change on Yield of Irrigated Wheat in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 19(76), 143-167.

Anderson, J. R., & Hazell, P. B. R. (1989). Variability in Grains Yields. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Ashktorab, N., Layani, Gh., & Soltani, Gh. R. (2015). Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change and Government Policies on Yield and Cultivation Area of Maize in Iran, Panel Data Method. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 29(1), 31-42.

Baltagi, B. H. (1995). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: Wiley.

Barnwal, P., & Kotani, K. (2010). Impact of Variation in Climate Factors on Crop Yield: A Case of Rice Crop in Andhra Pradesh, India. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/70370284.pdf.

Boubacar, I. (2010). The Effects of Drought on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in Sahel. Selected Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Retrieved from

https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/56322/files/crop%20yield.pdf.

Cabas, J., Weersink, A., & Olale, E. (2010). Crop Yield Response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables. Climate Change, 101(3-4), 599-616.

Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2009). Microeconometrics Using Stata. Texas: Stata Press.

Chang, C. C. (2002). The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Taiwan’s Agriculture. Agriculture Economics, 27, 51-64.

Chen, C. C., McCarl, B. A., & Schimmelpfennig, D. E. (2004). Yield Variability as Influenced by Climate: A Statistical Investigation. Climate Change, 66(1-2), 239-261.

Chen, C. C., & Chang, C. C. (2005). The Impact of Weather on Crop Yield Distribution in Taiwan: Some New Evidence from Panel Data Models and Implications for Crop Insurance. Agricultural Economics, 33, 503-511.

Deschenes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2007). The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather. American Economic Review, 97, 354-385.

Elasha, B. O. (2010). Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. United Nations Development Programme, Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), Retrieved from

http://www.grid.unep.ch/FP2011/step1/pdf/040_UNEP_2010_a.pdf.

Finger, R., & Schmid, S. (2007). The Impact of Climate Change on Mean and Variability of Swiss Corn Production. Workshop for Resource and Environmental Economics, Retrieved from https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7574/files/cp07fi01.pdf.

Gangi, M. H. (2003). Climatic Divisions of Iran. Scientific Bulletin of the National Center for Climatology, 3(1), 41-60.

Gbetibouo, G. A., & Hassan, R.M. (2005). Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Major South African Field Crops: A Ricardian Approach. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2),143–152.

Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.

Guiteras, R. (2007). The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture. Working Paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Retrieved from

http://econdse.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/guiteras_climate_change_indian_agriculture_sep_2009.pdf.

Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometrics (4th Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Companies.

Haim, D., Shechter, M., & Berliner, P. (2008). Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Representative Field Crops in Israel Agriculture: A Case Study of Wheat and Cotton. Climate Change, 86(3), 425–440.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). Climate Change 2007–The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). Working Group 1, Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Retrieved from

https://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. In: R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/.

Isik, M., & Devadoss, S. (2006). An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Yield Variability. Applied Economics, 38, 835-844.

Judge, G. G., Hill, R. C., Griffith, W., Lutkepohl, H., & Lee, T. C. (1988). Introduction to the theory and practice of econometrics (2nd Ed.).New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Just, R. E., & Pope, R. D. (1979). Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61, 276-284.

---------- (1978). Stochastic Specification of Production Functions and Economic Implications. Journal of Econometrics, 7, 67-86.

Kim, M., & Pang, A. (2009). Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk. Journal of Rural Development, 32(2), 17-29.

Koundouri, P., & Nauges, C. (2005). On Production Function Estimation with Selectivity and Risk Considerations. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 30(3), 597-608.

Kumar, K., & Parikh, S. (1998). Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture: The Ricardian Approach. In A. Dinar, R. Mendelsohn, R. Evenson, J. Parokh, A. Sanghi, K. Kumar, J. McKinsey & S. Lonergan (Eds.). Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Kumbhakar, S. C., & Tveteras, R. (2003). Risk Preferences, Production Risk, and Firm Heterogeneity. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(2), 275-293.

Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.

Maddison, D. (2000). A Hedonic Analysis of Agricultural Land Prices in England and Wales. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 27(4), 519-532.

Mansouri Daneshvar, M. R. (2016). Climate Change Facts and Statistics in Iran. Report of the Environmental Challenges of I. R. Iran to UNEA-2 delivering on the 2030 Agenda in Nairobi 2016. Tehran: Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh.

Mariara, J. K., & Karanja, F. K. (2007). The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 319-330.

McCarl, B. A., Villavicencio, X., & Wu, X. (2008). Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationary Dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90(5), 1241-1247.

Mearns, L. O., Rosenzweig, C., & Goldberg, R. (1997). Mean and Variance Change in Climate Scenarios: Methods, Agricultural Applications, and Measures of Uncertainty. Climate Change, 35(4), 367-396.

Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. D., & Shaw, D. (1994). The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. The American Economic Review, 84(4), 753-771.

Mendelsohn, R., & Dinar, A. (2003). Climate, Water, and Agriculture. Land Economics, 79(3), 328-341.

Moula, E. L. (2009). An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Smallholder Agriculture in Cameroon. Global Planet Change, 67(3), 205-208.

National Climate Change Office of Iran (NCCOI). (2014). Third National Communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Retrieved from http://climate-change.ir.

Norouzian, M., Sabouhi, M., & Parhizkari, A. (2013). Economic Analysis of Climate Change on Irrigated Cotton Yield in Selected of the Province. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 2(1), 73-79.

Phillips, D. L., Jeffrey, J. L., & Rusty, F. D. (1996). Sensitivity of the US Corn Belt to Climate Change and Elevated CO2: I. Corn and Soybean Yields. Agricultural Systems, 52, 481-502.

Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F. N., Goldberg, R., Mills, E., & Bloomfield, J. (2002). Increased Crop Damage in the U.S. from Excess Precipitation under Climate Change. Global Environment Change, 12, 197-202.

Saha, A., Havenner, A., & Talpaz, H. (1997). Stochastic Production Function: Small Sample Properties of ML versus FGLS. Applied Economics, 29(4), 459-469.

Salehnia. N., & Falahi. M. A. (2010). Evaluating Eco-Climatic Variables on Wheat Yield Using Panel Data Model. Journal of Water and Soil, 24(2), 375-384.

Sanghi, A., & Mendelsohn, R. (2008). The Impact of Global Warming on Farmers in Brazil and India. Global Environment Change,18(4), 655-665.

Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2008). Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Non-Linear Temperature Effects. NBER Working Paper Series, Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w13799.

Shahraki, J., Sabouhi, M., & Yaqubi, M. (2017). The Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Stochastic Production Function Approach. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 6(11), 69-84.

Tan, G., & Shibasaki, R. (2003). Global Estimation of Crop Productivity and the Impacts of Global Warming by GIS and EPIC Integration. Ecological Modeling, 168(3), 357-370.

Tveteras, R. (1999). Production Risk and Productivity Growth: Some Findings for Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 12(2), 161-179.

Tveteras, R., & Wan, G. H. (2000). Flexible Panel Data Models for Risky Production Technologies with an Application to Salmon Aquaculture. Econometric Reviews, 19(3), 367-389.

Vaseghi, E., & Esmaeili, A. A. K. (2008a). Investigation of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Iran Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach (Case Study: Wheat). Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 12(45),685-696.

Vaseghi, E., & Esmaeili, A. A. K. (2008b). Impacts of Climate Change on Land Rent: Case Study of Maize. Economics and Agriculture Journal, 2(3), 47-67.

Wang, J., Mendelsohn, R. O., Dinar, A., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Zhang, L. (2009). The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40,323-337.

Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.