Quantitative Effects of Public Perception on Demand for Covid-19 Vaccines: A Behavioral Economics Approach in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran


In this study, using the behavioral economics approach and following Hursh method, we address the question of the extent to which the framing of questions about the demand for Iranian and foreign vaccines can influence COVID-19 vaccination intentions. The number of final respondents was 496, and the results showed that demand for foreign vaccines was higher than demand for Iranian vaccines at all levels of efficacy. When vaccine efficacy was 90%, demand for Iranian and foreign vaccines was 68.9% and 50.7%, respectively. The main model results showed: 1- Framing the vaccine development process increased the minimum efficacy required by people for Iranian vaccines by more than seven percentage points. This value confirms people's concern about the Iranian vaccine development process. 2- People's belief in the effectiveness of the flu vaccine decreased their minimum effectiveness by more than four percentage points. 3- Higher well-being of individuals' subjective socioeconomic status increased the rate of reduction in individuals' required minimum efficacy (from -4.29 percentage points to -7.58 percentage points). 4- The very high willingness of individuals to be vaccinated reduced the minimum effectiveness required to more than eight percentage points. The coverage curve estimate also indicated that at a 60% coverage rate, the level of information and promotion should be about 96.8% for the Iranian vaccines and 89.3% for the foreign vaccines.


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